Nisco(SH:600282) Orient Securities·2025-10-29 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.68 CNY, based on a projected PB of 1.45X for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to steady profit growth. The proportion of low-margin construction rebar has decreased from 12.61% in 2024 to 9.33% in 2025, while the share of higher-margin special steel long products has increased to over 35% [9]. - The company has made significant advancements in high-end materials, achieving breakthroughs in critical areas. The gross margin for advanced steel materials reached 20.3% by Q3 2025, contributing positively to profits [9]. - Industry-wide production reduction measures are expected to stabilize steel prices, providing profit space for steel companies. As of September 2025, national crude steel production has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards supply-demand balance [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.176 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.12%. The Q3 2025 net profit reached 713 million CNY, marking the best quarterly performance since Q3 2022 [9]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 62.527 billion CNY, 62.218 billion CNY, and 62.538 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.973 billion CNY, 3.330 billion CNY, and 3.839 billion CNY [3][12]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2025 to 15.0% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 4.8% to 6.1% over the same period [12].