YTO(SH:600233) Xinda Securities·2025-10-29 07:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed significant improvement, with total profit increasing by 39% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 541.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.69% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 10.46 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year, primarily due to a low tax base from the previous year [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 182.72 billion yuan, which is an 8.73% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit for the first three quarters was 28.77 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.83% year-on-year [2] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 46.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.41% [4] Business Volume and Market Share - The company handled 77.21 billion express parcels in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.05%, which is higher than the industry growth rate of 13.3% [3] - The market share for the company in Q3 was 15.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 44.75 billion yuan, 52.85 billion yuan, and 61.84 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.54%, 18.09%, and 17.00% [5] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 13.1x, 11.1x, and 9.5x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5]