Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) Wanlian Securities·2025-10-29 08:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [11][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.075 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.82%, and a net profit of 77 million yuan, up 13.63% year-on-year [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative revenue reached 3.145 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.73% year-on-year growth, while the net profit increased by 22.03% to 248 million yuan [2][3]. Summary by Sections Product Performance - The revenue growth of cream and sauces is notable, with the high-end strategy showing significant results. Frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 55% of revenue, growing about 10% year-on-year, while baking ingredients (cream, sauces, and other materials) saw a 24% increase, with cream products growing around 40% and sauces over 35% year-on-year [3][4]. Channel Performance - The company experienced rapid growth in various channels, including supermarkets, catering, tea drinks, and new retail. Supermarket revenue increased by approximately 30%, while innovative channels grew by about 40% [3]. Profitability - The gross margin decreased by 2.40 percentage points to 28.94% year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs. However, effective cost control led to a slight decline in net margin by 0.11 percentage points to 7.03% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain growth in the baking industry, with projected net profits of 321 million yuan in 2025, 390 million yuan in 2026, and 454 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 19.70%, 21.45%, and 16.56% respectively [5][11].