Beijing Caishikou Department Store (SH:605599) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 08:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][9] Core Views - The company achieved approximately 20% growth in both revenue and profit in the third quarter, with revenue reaching 5.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.93%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 188 million yuan, up 21.89% year-on-year [1][3] - The core retail business of gold and jewelry grew by 20%, benefiting from rising gold prices and increased investment demand [1][3] - The company is expanding its marketing network, having opened 5 new stores in the third quarter, resulting in a total of 106 stores [1][3] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin increased by 0.48 percentage points to 9.15%, driven by product mix optimization and rising gold prices [2][3] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.758 billion yuan, a significant increase of 96.31% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [2][3] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 791 million, 882 million, and 989 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12.6, and 11.3 [3][4][9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 16.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.01 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.32% [4][11] - Net profit is expected to increase from 707 million yuan in 2023 to 989 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 12.08% [4][11] - The company maintains a stable EBIT margin, with projections of 5.62% in 2023 and gradually decreasing to 4.08% by 2027 [4][11]