千味央厨(001215):2025年三季报点评:大B逐步企稳,小B环比修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][25]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 1.378 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 54 million yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, total revenue reached 492 million yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 18 million yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights a stabilization in the large B-end market and a recovery in the small B-end market. The company has seen positive performance from major clients like Haidilao and Hema, while some clients faced challenges due to product gaps. The new sales strategies have shown effectiveness, leading to a narrowing decline in the small B-end sector [2][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in pricing and promotional strategies. The net profit margin for Q3 was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 1.912 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.3%. The net profit is expected to be 75 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.3% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51 times [4][15]. - The financial indicators show a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of 10.4% and 10.6% growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The net profit is expected to rebound significantly in the following years, with growth rates of 33.9% and 26.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][15].