盐湖股份（000792）：氯化钾景气上行，碳酸锂新项目成功试车

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.11 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.50 billion yuan, up 43.3% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 4.49 billion yuan, an increase of 46.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue reached 4.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.3%. The net profit for Q3 was 1.99 billion yuan, up 114.0% year-on-year and 45.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.11 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.50 billion yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 4.49 billion yuan. In Q3, the revenue was 4.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.99 billion yuan [2][6]. Industry Analysis - The potassium chloride market is experiencing an upward trend, with the average price in Q3 2025 reaching 3,269 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5% and a year-on-year increase of 31.0%. The company maintained stable production and sales, with a total production of 3.266 million tons and sales of 2.861 million tons from Q1 to Q3 2025 [12]. - The lithium carbonate industry is expected to reach a cyclical bottom in 2026. The company produced 31,600 tons of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 production at 11,600 tons. The lithium supply is anticipated to see a growth inflection point by 2027 [12]. Project Development - A new 40,000 tons/year lithium carbonate project has successfully entered the trial production phase, enhancing the company's profitability. Once fully operational, the total lithium salt production capacity will reach 80,000 tons/year [12]. Market Demand - Global demand for potassium fertilizer remains strong, with prices continuing to rise despite increased supply. In Q3 2025, the average prices for diammonium phosphate, urea, and potassium chloride in the U.S. corn belt were 909, 534, and 420 USD per ton, respectively [12]. Corporate Governance - The actual controller, China Minmetals, has committed to resolving the issue of business overlap with its subsidiaries in the lithium and potassium resource development sector within five years [12].