Hexing(SH:603556) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-29 10:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.369 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 732 million yuan, down 7.48%. However, in Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.445 billion yuan and a net profit of 336 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 25.12% and 30.21% respectively. This performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to the revenue growth from smart water meters, new energy business, and distribution business, indicating the second growth curve is on the rise [1][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 5.021 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 870 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.1% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.79 yuan [3][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize at 43.9% from 2025 to 2027, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 10.9% in 2025 to 12.1% in 2027 [3][11]. Business Expansion and Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its smart power distribution business both domestically and internationally. The South African smart ultrasonic water meter factory has commenced operations, marking a significant step in localizing its smart water business in Africa. Additionally, the company has secured large-scale bids for its self-owned distribution network products in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and has successfully won transformer orders in Central Asia and Africa [10]. - The launch of the "Orca" platform 10.0 version, which integrates edge computing, artificial intelligence, and digital technology, has significantly enhanced system performance and competitiveness in overseas solutions, showcasing the company's technological leadership in the smart grid sector [10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a total cash dividend of 338 million yuan for the 2024 annual profit distribution, continuing a nine-year streak of cash dividends since 2016, totaling approximately 2.306 billion yuan. Furthermore, a share repurchase plan has been initiated, with a planned repurchase amount of 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder value and prudent capital management [10].