YUNDA Corp.(SZ:002120) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-29 11:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yunda Holdings is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q3, the company experienced a quarter-on-quarter increase in single ticket revenue while continuing to monitor business volume performance [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 37.493 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 48.15% [7] - The report emphasizes the impact of the "anti-involution" trend on the express delivery business, noting a slowdown in year-on-year growth rates for business volume while single ticket revenue showed a slight improvement [7] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the projected operating revenue is 44,983 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5%. The forecast for 2024A is 48,543 million yuan, with an 8% growth rate [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E is estimated at 1,580 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected to be 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4 [2] Business Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 12.660 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.12% [7] - The total express delivery volume for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 19.14 billion tickets, with a market share of approximately 13.2% [7] - The average single ticket revenue for the first three quarters was approximately 1.94 yuan, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [7] Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.580 billion yuan, 1.930 billion yuan, and 2.252 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.67, and 0.78 yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.4X, 10.9X, and 9.4X respectively, indicating a potential for investment growth [7]