SGC(SH:601139) HTSC·2025-10-29 11:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.70 [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 7.097 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 280 million, down 12% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 22.528 billion, an 8.6% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 13% year-on-year [5][6]. - Natural gas sales and wholesale volumes saw significant growth, with total natural gas sales reaching 5.030 billion cubic meters, an 18.5% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume surged by 167% year-on-year, becoming a core growth driver. The company optimized gas source procurement to support stable business growth [6][7]. - The smart services segment negatively impacted overall performance, while the photovoltaic film and integrated energy businesses showed strong results. R&D investment increased by 26.6% year-on-year, focusing on technology upgrades and product innovation [7][8]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28.348 billion in 2024, RMB 30.152 billion in 2025, RMB 30.982 billion in 2026, and RMB 33.804 billion in 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 1.457 billion in 2024, RMB 1.579 billion in 2025, RMB 1.918 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2025 to 2027 [4][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 13.33 in 2024 to 10.13 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4][9]. Business Developments - The company completed the issuance of its third phase of technology innovation bonds, raising RMB 1.5 billion to support business development. Additionally, it plans to participate in the expansion of the Yuan Zhi Xing Chen Fund, which focuses on sectors like semiconductors and new materials, aligning with the company's strategic direction towards new productive forces [8][9]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reducing net profit estimates by 5.3%, 8.0%, and 7.7% respectively, due to the impact of the completion of the "bottle-to-pipe" project and a downward revision of smart service revenues [9][22].