SGC(SH:601139) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-29 12:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 22.53 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing an 8.63% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 918 million yuan, a decrease of 13.08% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations [7] - Natural gas sales volume for the first nine months reached 5.03 billion cubic meters, an increase of 18.49% year-on-year, with city gas sales in the Greater Bay Area growing by 4.98% [7] - The decline in gas sales to power plants is attributed to changes in cost compensation and electricity pricing regulations in Guangdong province, but recent adjustments in capacity pricing are expected to provide significant compensation to the company's gas power business [7] - The company's wholesale natural gas business has seen rapid growth, with sales volume increasing by 167% year-on-year, and is expected to contribute significantly to profits [7] - The photovoltaic film business has improved, with a 48% increase in shipments year-on-year, while the impact of the smart service business on overall profits has weakened [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.42 billion, 1.77 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 31.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted at 1.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [3] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 15.3% for 2025 [3] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.7% for 2025 [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 6.77 yuan, with a market capitalization of 19.48 billion yuan [4] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.2 and a dividend yield of 2.36% [4]