HLGF(SH:600346) Guohai Securities·2025-10-29 14:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with a rebound in refining sector profitability driven by "anti-involution" policies [2][8] - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability in Q3 2025, with a net profit of 19.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.5% [6][7] - The report highlights the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns through consistent cash dividends [10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 157.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, and a net profit of 5.02 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 53.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.0% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.2% [6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 improved to 16.4%, up 8.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Segment Performance - In Q3 2025, refining products generated revenue of 26.9 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year but up 37% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 5.53 million tons [7][14] - The PTA segment reported revenue of 13.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [14] - New materials contributed 9.8 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decline of 6% [14] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 211.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 7.47 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 6% [12] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, reaching 11.16 billion yuan by 2027 [12] - The company is expected to benefit from industry consolidation and increased competitiveness due to the "anti-involution" policies [8]