Berun Chemical(SZ:000683) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-29 14:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a cash acquisition of 10.65% equity in Yingen Mining planned to enhance resource control and profitability [6][8] - Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 16.54% to 8.656 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 41.15% to 1.062 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, the company maintains a positive outlook due to its cost advantages in natural soda [6][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming production of its second-phase natural soda project and a 1.2 million tons per year sodium bicarbonate project, which could significantly enhance growth potential [8] Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.740 billion yuan, down 17.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 319 million yuan, down 46.43% year-on-year and 20.86% quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - The average price of thermal coal increased by 2.11% to 561 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, while the average prices for heavy and light soda ash in Henan decreased by 10.94% and 6.70%, respectively [7] - The company's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.410 billion yuan, 1.902 billion yuan, and 1.988 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.53 yuan [6][9] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 6.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of 24.172 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 21.602 billion yuan [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.1, 12.7, and 12.2, respectively [9]