贵州茅台（600519）：尊重市场，行稳至远

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 130.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up 6.25% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to external demand pressures, with projected net profits of 90.47 billion, 95.02 billion, and 101.53 billion yuan respectively for those years [6] - The report emphasizes the strong brand barrier and excellent business model of Moutai, which contribute to its long-term stable profitability and high cash flow quality [6] - The implied dividend yield for 2025 is projected at 3.8%, indicating medium to long-term investment value [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 183.22 billion, 192.66 billion, and 205.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 5.1%, and 6.5% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 90.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be 72.24 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high at around 91.7% for 2025 [5] Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 39.04 billion yuan from its liquor business, with Moutai liquor revenue at 34.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26% [6] - Domestic sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 38.05 billion yuan, up 1.38% year-on-year, while international sales decreased by 21.8% to 1 billion yuan [6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 50.0%, with a slight year-on-year decrease [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 2025 was 25.08 billion yuan, a significant increase of 221.5% year-on-year [6] - The company’s cash flow from sales of goods and services was 43.71 billion yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year [6] - The end of Q3 2025 saw a pre-receivable account balance of 8.72 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase [6]