GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) Huaxin Securities·2025-10-29 15:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is showing signs of a revenue turning point, with new products continuing to penetrate channels [1] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.533 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156 million yuan, down 44% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 37.15% in Q3 2025, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control measures [5] - The company is focusing on differentiated product development, particularly in the snack and e-commerce channels, which are contributing to growth [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to EPS of 2.59, 3.46, and 4.19 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 16, and 13 times [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating revenue was 588 million yuan, an increase of 4% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 26% to 82 million yuan [4][5] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased by 6 percentage points to 17.33%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.71% [5] Product and Channel Development - The company is developing differentiated products around legumes and flavored nuts, with successful trials in e-commerce [6] - The growth in Q3 2025 was primarily driven by the snack wholesale and e-commerce channels, with improvements in direct sales channels [6] Earnings Forecast - The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.59, 3.46, and 4.19 yuan, reflecting a cautious outlook on revenue growth [7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted at -2.1% for 2025, followed by 9.3% and 12.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10]