华鲁恒升（600426）：三季度归母净利下滑，主营产品量升价降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][22][27] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was 7.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 810 million yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year and 6.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - The decline in net profit is attributed to fluctuations in market supply and demand for some main products [1][7] - The company has seen an increase in production and sales volume for its main products, benefiting from the commissioning of integrated projects at the Jingzhou base [2][10] - The prices of most main products have decreased, with the average market prices for urea, octanol, caprolactam, and acetic acid down by 15%, 15%, 30%, and 24% year-on-year, respectively [3][11][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 77.9 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 19.1% and a net margin of 11.4% [1][7] - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 4.5%, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1][7] Production and Sales - The sales volume for new energy materials, fertilizers, organic amines, and acetic acid increased by 14%, 40%, 4%, and 9% year-on-year, respectively [2][10] - Production volumes also increased, with new capacities from the Jingzhou base contributing significantly [2][10] Pricing Trends - The average market prices for key products have generally declined, with significant drops in urea and caprolactam prices due to high industry inventory and new capacity releases [3][11][15] - The price of raw coal has decreased year-on-year, aiding in cost control for the company [3][11][15] Investment Outlook - The company plans to invest 3.039 billion yuan in upgrading its gasification platform, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and energy utilization [2][10] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 3.394 billion, 4.020 billion, and 4.358 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.60, 1.89, and 2.05 yuan [4][22]