YINGJIA DISTILLERY(SH:603198) CMS·2025-10-30 02:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and net profit declined by 20.8% and 39.0% year-on-year, respectively, showing resilience in the face of significant industry challenges [7] - The company has begun to see the effects of proactive adjustments made ahead of the industry, with a gradual improvement in performance expected as market demand stabilizes [7] - The decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 is similar to that in Q2, indicating a consistent trend in the company's performance amidst a broader industry downturn [7] Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue is projected at 6,720 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22% [2] - The company expects a significant decline in revenue for 2025, with an estimated total of 6,052 million yuan, reflecting an 18% decrease [2] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.42 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.1 [2][14] Quarterly Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,356 million yuan, with a gross margin of 70.2%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][7] - The company's net profit margin decreased to 28.1%, reflecting an 8.2 percentage point decline due to increased channel subsidies and fixed costs [7] Product Line Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q3 2025 was 1,010 million yuan and 260 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 21.8% and 22.8% year-on-year, both showing a slight narrowing compared to Q2 [7] - Revenue from the domestic market was 880 million yuan, down 21.6%, while revenue from the external market was 400 million yuan, down 22.7%, indicating a more stable performance in the domestic sector [7] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Anhui Yingjia Group Co., Ltd., holds a 72.22% stake in the company [3]