KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huachuang Securities·2025-10-30 03:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 results show a pragmatic slowdown with total revenue of 1309.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 646.3 billion yuan, also up 6.2% year-on-year. Q3 alone generated revenue of 398.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3%, and a net profit of 192.2 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development while managing channel pressures and optimizing costs. The gross profit margin improved by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.0 percentage points due to reduced series liquor promotions [6][7]. - Management is actively addressing market changes and consumer needs, launching new products and services to enhance brand value and stabilize pricing. The new chairman emphasizes maintaining dealer network resilience and modernizing market management [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Guizhou Moutai's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in the wholesale channel, which saw a 14.4% increase, while direct sales and iMoutai experienced declines of 14.9% and 57.2%, respectively [6][7]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting total revenue of 184,879 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 72.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times, indicating a solid valuation outlook [7][8].