Shede Spirits (SH:600702) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-10-30 05:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.0 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.9% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, a significant drop of 63.2% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue structure shows that high-end and ordinary liquor segments faced declines, while non-liquor products saw a growth of 16.5% year-on-year [3]. - The company added 352 new distributors and had a total of 2,554 distributors by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its distribution network [3]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 62.1%, while the net profit margin fell by 3.7 percentage points to 2.9% [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to decline by 13.5% in 2025, followed by growth of 10.7% in 2026 and 16.1% in 2027 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.42 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.74 yuan by 2027 [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue for 2025 is estimated at 4.635 billion yuan, with a net profit of 473 million yuan [10]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 6.7% in 2025 to 11.4% in 2027 [10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 41.8 in 2025 to 21.7 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [10].