常熟银行（601128）：业绩领跑，长线资金积极增持

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance continues to lead its peers, with a 9M25 revenue of 9.1 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.4 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [4][9] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 27 percentage points to 463% [4][9] - Long-term investors, including insurance and state-owned shareholders, have been actively increasing their holdings, reflecting confidence in the bank's growth potential [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for Changshu Bank are as follows: - Total operating income (million yuan): 2023: 9,870.29, 2024: 10,909.24, 2025E: 11,601.01, 2026E: 12,497.16, 2027E: 13,688.58 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 2023: 3,281.50, 2024: 3,813.26, 2025E: 4,197.26, 2026E: 4,758.90, 2027E: 5,449.21 [5] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 19.60% in 2023, 16.20% in 2024, and 10.07% in 2025 [5] Performance Analysis - The bank's net interest income increased by 2.4% year-on-year in 9M25, while non-interest income growth slowed to 35.3% [6][10] - The loan growth rate for 3Q25 was 7.1%, with corporate loans contributing nearly 60% of the new loans [6][8] - The bank's cost-to-income ratio improved, contributing to profit growth [6][10] Credit Quality - The annualized NPL generation rate is estimated at 1.02%, with the majority of new NPLs expected to come from personal business loans [9] - The bank's proactive approach to asset disposal has helped maintain a low NPL ratio [9] Market Position - Changshu Bank's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.65, indicating potential for value appreciation [9] - The bank is expected to continue its high-quality growth trajectory, supported by its strategic focus on small and medium-sized enterprises and retail banking [9]