Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 26.07 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a year-on-year revenue decline narrowing to 4.66%, compared to a 33.98% decline in H1 2025. This improvement is attributed to contributions from new businesses such as smart healthcare and electronic vouchers, while traditional business recovery is still dependent on local fiscal spending improvements [2][3]. - The company has increased its contract liabilities to RMB 76.07 million, reflecting a 43.89% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 67.37% year-on-year growth, indicating a sustained recovery in industry demand [2]. - The integration of AI with fiscal operations is expected to inject new momentum into traditional businesses, with new business revenue share anticipated to significantly increase [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 364 million, a year-on-year decrease of 26.28%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 64.24 million, a year-on-year increase of 1048.15% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was RMB 124 million, with a net loss of RMB 15.80 million, showing a year-on-year improvement of 39.78% [1][2]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on new business areas such as smart healthcare and electronic vouchers, which are expected to drive future growth. The smart healthcare wallet project has already served over 1.5 million insured individuals [3]. - The company is also enhancing its operational efficiency and cash flow management, with a year-on-year increase of 23.34% in operating cash flow for the first three quarters [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards significantly, with net profits projected at RMB 42.58 million for 2025, RMB 141.54 million for 2026, and RMB 230.33 million for 2027 [4][11]. - The target price adjustment is primarily due to changes in profit forecasts and comparable company valuations, with a target PE of 65 times for 2026 [4].
中科江南（301153）：新业务驱动Q3经营低点或已过