中控技术（688777）：短期业绩承压，创新业务是未来看点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 54.18 CNY based on a 42x PE ratio for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to macroeconomic impacts on downstream demand and is in a strategic transformation phase with increased expenses [2][9]. - The core products maintain competitive advantages, with the DCS system holding a 40.4% market share and the SIS system at 31.2%, both leading in their respective categories [9]. - The company is investing heavily in AI and innovative business models, with subscription revenue from software reaching 0.77 million CNY, enhancing customer retention and future revenue sustainability [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 8,620 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 30.1%. However, projections for 2025 show a decline in revenue to 8,711 million CNY, a decrease of 4.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,102 million CNY, reflecting a 38.1% year-on-year increase, but is expected to drop to 1,024 million CNY in 2025, a decrease of 8.3% [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable around 33.4% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to decrease to 11.8% [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.29 CNY, 1.49 CNY, and 1.72 CNY respectively, adjusted from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company’s operating profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,099 million CNY, down from 1,185 million CNY in 2023 [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is focusing on AI products and robotics, with new offerings like the TPT model generating 1.54 million CNY in revenue and robotics contributing 1.22 million CNY as of Q3 2025 [9]. - The report highlights the importance of subscription models in building sustainable revenue streams and increasing customer loyalty [9].