GDPD(SH:600795) Guotou Securities·2025-10-30 07:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.32 CNY per share, while the current share price is 5.35 CNY [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 38% in non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters, with steady growth in installed power generation capacity [1]. - The total revenue for the first three quarters was 125.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.47% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in electricity sales prices [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 6.78 billion CNY for the first three quarters, down 26.27% year-on-year, attributed to previous gains from the sale of a subsidiary and the absence of impairment provisions this period [1]. - Cost control measures have been effective, with sales and management expenses decreasing by over 30% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 47.55 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.09 billion CNY, an increase of 24.87% year-on-year [1]. - The first three quarters saw a non-recurring net profit of 6.42 billion CNY, up 37.99% year-on-year [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 396.02 CNY per MWh, with a market transaction volume accounting for 90.89% of total on-grid electricity [2]. Power Generation Capacity - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 123.24 million kW, with thermal power accounting for 79.29 million kW and renewable energy sources (wind and solar) contributing 2.89 million kW [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated 143.22 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 7.57% [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 170.04 billion CNY, 174.89 billion CNY, and 178.44 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 7.51 billion CNY, 8.26 billion CNY, and 8.91 billion CNY [3]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are -5.1%, 2.9%, 2.0% and -23.6%, 10%, 7.9% respectively [3].