深信服（300454）：单季度收入增长提速，净利润大幅改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in net profit and accelerated revenue growth in the latest quarter, driven by robust performance in its cloud business and effective cost management [4][5] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic network security and cloud computing sectors, with expectations for rapid growth in cloud services due to the surge in AI demand [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -81 million yuan, reflecting an 86.10% increase year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a 9.86% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 147 million yuan, marking a staggering 1097.40% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 60.94%, up 0.33 percentage points from the same period last year [4] - The company's operating cash flow improved from -731 million yuan in the previous year to 13 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales receipts and reduced payments for raw materials [4] Business Segment Performance - The company's hyper-converged infrastructure (HCI) and distributed storage (EDS) businesses are key growth drivers, with HCI maintaining a leading market share of 15.9% in the overall domestic market and 26.5% in the full-stack HCI market [5] - Over 600 central and state-owned enterprises have adopted the company's hyper-converged products for domestic transformation, with significant deployments reported [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.23 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 2.45 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 93.1, 61.0, and 46.8 [7][8] - The company is expected to see a revenue increase from 8.51 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.90 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.1% [8]