Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (SZ:000983) Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-30 07:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a sequential improvement due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, with a notable decrease in management expenses [1] - The long-term coal price index has seen a decline, impacting the company's performance, but a rebound in prices is expected in Q4 [2] - The company has successfully acquired mining rights in Shanxi, which is anticipated to enhance its coal production capacity and growth potential [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, reflecting expected recovery in coal prices and continued growth in the coal business [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 27.18 billion yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.43 billion yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 9.12 billion yuan, up 1% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 26.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average long-term contract price index for Q3 was 995 yuan/ton, down 4.1% quarter-on-quarter, while the spot price for coking coal increased by 18.8% [2] - The company’s estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.95 billion, 2.21 billion, and 2.43 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.34, 0.39, and 0.43 yuan [4] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 21.4 for 2025, with projections of 18.9 for 2026 and 17.1 for 2027 [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 42.29 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 34.57 billion yuan [6] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 56.36%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [6]