Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-30 07:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown stable revenue growth with a 15.73% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.15 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company also increased by 22.03% and 26.63% for the first three quarters, amounting to 248 million and 242 million yuan respectively [4][5] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 321 million, 406 million, and 482 million yuan, which corresponds to EPS of 1.89, 2.40, and 2.85 yuan for the respective years [4][5] Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.82%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 77 million and 76 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.63% and 14.17% respectively [4][5] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2.40 percentage points year-on-year due to rising raw material prices, particularly for baking oils [6] Business Segments and Channels - The frozen baking segment saw a nearly 10% year-on-year revenue increase in the first three quarters of 2025, while the cream and sauce segments experienced approximately 24% growth [5] - The KA channel (Key Account) showed a revenue increase of about 30% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from new products [5] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has focused on cost control, resulting in a decrease in overall expense ratios despite the pressure from high raw material prices. The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios all saw year-on-year declines [6][7] - The company continues to enhance efficiency by focusing on core products and key customers, optimizing cost control mechanisms, and improving production line management [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 4.365 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. The projected net profit for 2025 is 321 million yuan, reflecting a 19.6% increase [9][11] - The P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 21.5, 17.0, and 14.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][11]