贵州茅台（600519）：务实降速，坚韧前行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in the face of industry pressures, achieving positive growth despite a challenging demand environment. However, the annual revenue growth target of 9% is likely to be difficult to achieve, necessitating a potential downward adjustment of expectations [2] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 64.6 billion yuan, also up 6.25% [1][2] - The company is experiencing a phase of adjustment in its series liquor segment, while the flagship product, Moutai liquor, continues to show stable growth [2] - The direct sales channel is facing pricing challenges, with a significant drop in revenue from direct sales compared to distributors [2] - The new leadership is focused on balancing pricing and performance amid fluctuating market conditions [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 150.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.0%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 174.14 billion yuan, growing at 15.7%, and for 2025, it is estimated at 182.95 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 74.73 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 86.23 billion yuan in 2024, and 90.51 billion yuan in 2025, with respective growth rates of 19.2%, 15.4%, and 5.0% [3] - The gross margin is expected to remain high, around 92.0% in 2023, gradually decreasing to 91.4% by 2027 [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 59.68 yuan in 2023, increasing to 72.27 yuan in 2025, and reaching 79.74 yuan by 2027 [3]