珠江啤酒（002461）：Q3销量承压，结构升级延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 1.34% to 1.875 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.16% to 332 million yuan, indicating that revenue and profit fell short of market expectations [1][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue increase of 3.81% to 5.073 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 17.05% to 944 million yuan [1][5] - The company’s beer sales volume for the first three quarters was 1.2035 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while the average price per ton was 4,215 yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, beer sales volume decreased by 2.9% to 469,400 tons, with the average price per ton at 3,995 yuan, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 increased by 1.16 percentage points to 50.93%, and the net profit margin rose by 1.36 percentage points to 17.83%, benefiting from improved product mix and lower raw material costs [2] - The company maintained stable expense ratios across sales, management, R&D, and financial costs, with slight increases in each category [2] - The company is actively enhancing its mid-to-high-end product lines and expanding into markets outside its home province, indicating potential for future growth despite current challenges [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.43, 0.47, and 0.52 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to external environmental impacts [2]