GoodWe Technologies (SH:688390) BOCOM International·2025-10-30 07:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of RMB 58.00, indicating a potential downside of 2.0% from the current closing price of RMB 59.20 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's overseas high-margin business revenue has shown strong growth, leading to a significant recovery in performance. In Q3, the company reported revenues of RMB 2.11 billion and a net profit of RMB 0.98 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 17% and 201%, respectively [2][6]. - The gross margin improved to 26.2%, up by 2.8 and 5.9 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased demand for household storage in regions like Australia, which boosted high-margin overseas inverter and battery business revenues [2][6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards by 3% and 4%, respectively, due to unexpected global storage demand, while maintaining revenue forecasts [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7,353 million in 2023, RMB 6,738 million in 2024, RMB 8,022 million in 2025E, RMB 8,945 million in 2026E, and RMB 10,508 million in 2027E, with a notable year-on-year growth of 56.1% in 2023 followed by a decline of 8.4% in 2024 [5][14]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025E, and further to RMB 469 million in 2026E, reaching RMB 820 million in 2027E [5][14]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 14.31 billion, with a year-to-date stock price change of 44.74% [4]. Market Dynamics - Exports of inverters to Europe have seen a short-term decline, while exports to Australia have surged by 249% year-on-year, driven by household storage subsidies [6]. - The company’s contract liabilities decreased by 6% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential challenges in short-term growth despite a positive long-term outlook [6].