Changshu Bank(SH:601128) Huachuang Securities·2025-10-30 08:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Changshu Bank with a target price of 10.14 CNY [2] Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue and profit growth remain robust, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 8.15% and a net profit growth of 12.82% for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The bank's asset quality shows marginal improvement, with a non-performing loan ratio stable at 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 463%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 26.6 percentage points [2] - The bank's credit demand is recovering, with significant growth in both corporate and retail loans, indicating a positive trend in lending activities [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Changshu Bank achieved an operating income of 90.52 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.57 billion CNY [2] - The average net interest margin for the first three quarters was 2.57%, with a slight decline of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating stability in interest income [2] - Non-interest income has been a drag on revenue growth, with a 22.2% year-on-year decline in other non-interest income in the third quarter due to fluctuations in interest and exchange rates [2] Loan and Asset Quality Summary - As of September 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets grew by 10.4% year-on-year, driven by a 7.1% increase in loan volume [2] - The bank's non-performing loan generation rate improved, with a quarterly annualized rate of 1.0%, down 34 basis points from the previous quarter [2] - The bank's provision for credit losses decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, reflecting improved asset quality and reduced provisioning pressure [2] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profit growth rates of 13.3%, 11.2%, and 10.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [2] - The bank's dividend payout ratio has increased to 25.3%, with an expected dividend yield of 4.8% for 2025 [2] - The target price of 10.14 CNY corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.95X for 2026, suggesting potential upside based on historical averages [2]