LFX(SH:600612) HTSC·2025-10-30 08:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 48.0 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with a net profit of 1.44 billion RMB, down 19.1% year-on-year. However, the third quarter showed a revenue increase of 16.0% year-on-year, indicating positive momentum from new product launches and a recovery in net store openings [1][2]. - The company has launched nearly 400 new products in 2025, including the "盛唐风华," "凤祥喜事," and "藏宝金" series, which have contributed to the revenue growth, particularly in the jewelry segment [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 7.0%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from rising gold prices, although this was partially offset by an increase in the proportion of lower-margin gold bars [3]. - The company opened a net of 75 new stores in Q3 2025, with plans to open an additional 31 stores in Q4 2025, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its retail footprint [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.65 billion RMB, with jewelry sales growing by 12.1% year-on-year, driven by new product contributions [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 1.5%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased sales and promotional expenses [3]. Store Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a total of 5,625 retail outlets, including 187 direct stores and 5,438 franchise stores, with a focus on enhancing brand image and adapting to market trends [4]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 1.65 billion RMB, 1.85 billion RMB, and 2.06 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.5%, +12.6%, and +11.3% [5]. - The target price is set at 63 RMB, corresponding to a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [5].