金螳螂（002081）：应收账款显著压降，新签保持增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 4.12 [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, primarily due to slower project execution influenced by tight funding from downstream government investments. However, new orders have been consistently growing since Q2 2023, indicating an increase in market share and a solid competitive position [1][5]. - The gross margin has declined year-on-year, and the expense ratio has increased due to a significant drop in revenue. Despite this, the company has managed to reduce accounts receivable significantly, indicating improved cash flow management [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 13.275 billion, down 9.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 382 million, down 18.47% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was RMB 3.747 billion, down 29.62% year-on-year and 20.98% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 23.67 million, down 80.87% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 12.64%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin was 9.92%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of RMB 619 million for the first nine months of 2025, but the cash collection ratio improved, with accounts receivable and contract assets significantly reduced [3]. - As of Q3 2025, the company had a healthy balance sheet with interest-bearing liabilities of only RMB 730 million and cash reserves of RMB 4.912 billion, resulting in a debt ratio of 2.16% [3]. Order Book and Future Outlook - The company signed new orders worth RMB 19.11 billion in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The order book as of Q3 2025 stood at RMB 19.3 billion, providing a safety cushion for future revenues [4]. - Future revenue growth estimates have been revised downwards due to slow project execution, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted down by 16.37% to 18.48% [5].