TKGF(SH:601233) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-30 08:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The polyester industry is experiencing pressure, but the "anti-involution" trend is expected to accelerate industry recovery [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.83% [7] - The third quarter saw a decline in polyester demand due to seasonal factors, with a significant drop in sales volume [7] - The PTA industry continues to face pressure from excess supply, but a rebound is anticipated as major players begin to reduce production [7] - Investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical has improved, indicating potential for future profitability [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 102.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 2.127 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77.0% [6] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 4.01%, down 2 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.88 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 17 [6]