Xingfa Chem(SH:600141) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-30 09:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has reported a stable performance in Q3 2025, benefiting from the rise in glyphosate prices and significant export premiums for phosphate fertilizers, leading to a quarter-on-quarter growth [1][6] - The phosphate rock prices remain high, and the company anticipates substantial incremental growth due to its acquisition of a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining, which has a resource reserve of 185 million tons [6] - The company’s fertilizer sales volume increased significantly, and it is expected to benefit from the export premium in the phosphate fertilizer sector [6] - The organic silicon segment is under short-term pressure but is expected to improve in the long term due to a lack of new capacity in the industry [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28,396 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 1,805 million, reflecting a 12.7% year-on-year increase [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.64 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 [2] - The gross margin is expected to be 19.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.9% [2] Market Data - As of October 29, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 28.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 31,344 million [3] - The stock has a dividend yield of 3.52% based on the most recent dividend announcement [3] - The stock's price-to-book ratio is 1.4, indicating a moderate valuation relative to its book value [3] Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 91.61 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [6] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.92 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 42% [6] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 17.32%, with a net margin of 7.41% [6]