贵州茅台（600519）：务实降速，蓄力前行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up by 6.25% [5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.35%, and a net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, growing by 0.48% [5]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor for the first three quarters was 110.51 billion yuan, up 9.28% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor decreased by 7.78% to 17.88 billion yuan [5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 increased by 0.23 percentage points to 91.28%, driven by high-margin Moutai liquor [5]. - The report projects earnings per share of 72.41 yuan and 76.74 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20 times and 19 times [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total shares outstanding: 1.252 billion shares [2] - Closing price as of October 29, 2025: 1431.90 yuan [5] - Total market capitalization: 1793.13 billion yuan [5] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 Moutai liquor revenue: 34.92 billion yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year [5] - Q3 2025 series liquor revenue: 4.12 billion yuan, down 34.02% year-on-year [5] - Wholesale channel revenue for the first three quarters: 72.84 billion yuan, up 6.29% year-on-year [5] - Direct sales channel revenue for the first three quarters: 55.55 billion yuan, up 6.86% year-on-year [5] Profitability Metrics - Q3 2025 net profit margin: 50.97%, down 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Sales expense ratio: 3.06%, down 1.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Management expense ratio: 4.54%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [5]