苏农银行（603323）：保风险、稳投放，盈利稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Su Nong Bank [3] Core Views - Su Nong Bank reported a revenue of 3.22 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [1] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.90% quarter-on-quarter, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 31 percentage points to 356% [1] - The management's focus on steady profit growth is evident despite challenges such as revenue pressure and VAT adjustments [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,045.97 million yuan in 2023 to 4,620.52 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,742.59 million yuan in 2023 to 2,264.95 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 7.0% [2] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 11.62% in 2023 to 9.98% in 2027 [2] Performance Analysis - The bank's net interest income decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to a narrowing interest margin [6] - Non-interest income grew by 7.9% year-on-year, contributing positively to revenue growth [6] - The bank's loan growth accelerated to 8.7% in the third quarter of 2025, driven by increased demand from small and medium-sized enterprises [6][10] Risk Management - The bank's management has adopted a cautious approach to credit expansion, particularly in urban areas, to mitigate risks while maintaining profitability [6] - The NPL generation rate is estimated to stabilize at around 0.8% for the first nine months of 2025, indicating effective risk management practices [9] Market Data - As of October 30, 2025, the closing price of Su Nong Bank's shares was 5.17 yuan, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.6 and a dividend yield of 5.22% [3] - The bank's market capitalization is approximately 10.436 billion yuan [3]