Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) Minsheng Securities·2025-10-30 10:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by increased sales from key customers, particularly NIO, which delivered 87,071 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.77% [2][3]. - Despite revenue growth, the company's net profit faced significant pressure, declining by 36.92% year-on-year in Q3 2025, primarily due to increased tariffs and shipping costs [2][3]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 21.34%, down 3.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix and price reductions from customers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.32% [1]. - Q3 2025 revenue was 20.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.59% [2]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 0.63 billion yuan, down 36.92% year-on-year, but up 59.99% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 3.46%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost and Expense Management - The company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 2.95%, 4.84%, 7.52%, and 1.26%, respectively, showing mixed changes compared to the previous year [2]. Market Expansion and New Business Growth - The company’s emerging businesses, particularly in sensor and ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems), are rapidly growing, with sensor revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 5.57 billion yuan, up 18.23% year-on-year [3]. - The intelligent suspension business also showed strong growth, with revenue of 9.53 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.73% [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 85.7 billion yuan, 107.0 billion yuan, and 129.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 3.0 billion yuan, 3.8 billion yuan, and 4.8 billion yuan [4][5].