lu'an EED(SH:601699) Minsheng Securities·2025-10-30 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 21.1 billion yuan, down 20.82% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.554 billion yuan, down 44.45% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 21.83% and a net profit drop of 63.96% [1][3]. - The company’s coal production and sales volumes decreased, with a notable increase in the proportion of coking coal [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 13.82 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.62% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.23% [3]. - The average selling price of coal was 526.77 yuan per ton, down 15.62% year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 20.42% quarter-on-quarter to 359.01 yuan [3]. - The overall gross profit from coal operations was 2.068 billion yuan, down 36.14% year-on-year [3]. Production and Sales - From Q1 to Q3 2025, the company produced 42.45 million tons of raw coal, a slight decrease of 0.05% year-on-year, with coking coal production increasing by 8.67% [2]. - The total sales volume of commercial coal was 37.58 million tons, down 1.29% year-on-year, with coking coal sales increasing by 9.34% [2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.218 billion, 3.016 billion, and 3.506 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74, 1.01, and 1.17 yuan per share [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20, 15, and 13 times, respectively, based on the closing price on October 30, 2025 [4][5].