贵州茅台（600519）：增长降速，良性发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first three quarters of 2025 at 1309.04 billion, 646.27 billion, and 646.81 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of +6.32%, +6.25%, and +6.42% [1][7] - In Q3 alone, revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 398.10 billion, 192.24 billion, and 192.90 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of +0.35%, +0.48%, and +0.95%, indicating a slowdown in growth but performance in line with expectations [1][3] - The company’s cash collection in Q3 increased by +2.61% year-on-year, and the ending contract liabilities decreased by 21.97% year-on-year, although they increased by 22.42 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter, showcasing strong cash collection capabilities [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Moutai liquor and other series in Q3 was 349.24 billion and 41.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of +7.3% for Moutai liquor and a decline of -34.0% for other series [2] - For the first three quarters, Moutai liquor revenue grew by +9.3%, while other series saw a decline of -7.8% [2] - Direct sales and wholesale channel revenues in Q3 were 155.46 billion and 235.00 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9% and +14.4% [2] Profitability Metrics - In Q3, the company’s gross margin and net margin slightly improved year-on-year to 91.3% and 48.3% respectively [3] - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios in Q3 were 3.1%, 4.5%, and -0.4% year-on-year [3] - The company benefits from an increased proportion of Moutai liquor sales, leading to stable profitability despite external pressures [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 72.87, 77.31, and 82.70 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The target price is set at 1822 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2025 [3]