中航高科（600862）：波动不改长期趋势，静待需求节奏恢复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.761 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 1.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 806 million, down 11.59% year-over-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 799 million, a decrease of 11.09% year-over-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 1.014 billion, a year-over-year increase of 20.41% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 24.67%. The net profit for Q3 was 201 million, down 34.74% year-over-year and 18.59% quarter-over-quarter [2][5][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.761 billion, with the aerospace new materials business contributing 3.713 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 1.55%. The equipment business generated 44 million, down 3.86% year-over-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.014 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 20.41% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 24.67% due to changes in product delivery structure and customer demand [12] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 38.24%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-over-year. The expense ratio was 11.28%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-over-year, with R&D expense ratio at 4%, up 1.37 percentage points year-over-year. The net profit margin was 21.62%, down 2.5 percentage points year-over-year. In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 39.47%, a year-over-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points but an increase of 5.23 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [12] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.190 billion, 1.365 billion, and 1.578 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the current market capitalization of 31.6 billion are projected to be 27, 23, and 20 times. Despite the short-term fluctuations in revenue and profit in Q3, the company's strong industry position and growth potential in large aircraft and commercial aircraft sectors during the 14th Five-Year Plan period provide significant valuation advantages [12]