HAI TIAN(SH:603288) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-30 11:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][8]. Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with continuous improvement in profitability. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 216.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.22 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights a slowdown in revenue growth in Q3 2025, attributed to a decline in demand in the northern region due to regulatory impacts on the restaurant sector. Q3 revenue from the seasoning business was 60.43 billion yuan, growing 4.53% year-on-year, but down from 10.45% in the first half of the year [5]. - The gross profit margin has been on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 3.19 percentage points to 39.97% for the first three quarters of 2025. The report notes that the increase in sales and management expense ratios is primarily due to the initiation of employee stock ownership plan expenses [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 287.22 billion yuan, 311.15 billion yuan, and 334.98 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 8% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 70.25 billion yuan, 77.79 billion yuan, and 85.15 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 11% for 2025 and 2026, and 9% for 2027 [5]. Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The EPS is projected to be 1.20 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.46 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 32.0, 28.9, and 26.4 [3][5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has increased its distributor network by 19 to a total of 6,726 distributors, indicating a strengthening market presence [5]. - The report notes that the company faces potential risks from demand recovery being lower than expected and increased competition in the market [5].