Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-30 11:37Report Overview - Date: October 30, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Huang Chaoxian (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03147169) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The current trading focus of the rubber market leans towards macro - expectations. Factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies, Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and leader meetings have warmed the macro - atmosphere. The reduction of geopolitical tensions has restored market risk appetite, pushing up macro - sentiment. - The valuation of rubber, especially RU, is not high, and the upstream profit is low. The visible inventory of dry rubber has been decreasing after the previous low price, driving the rubber market to warm up. The recent performance of the rubber market reflects a clear bottom - support range formed by both supply and demand. - The short - term performance of rubber is strong, but further upward drivers are limited. In the short term, it may mainly involve the relative valuation repair of some products. Near - term, attention should be paid to the liquidity risk on the spot side, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the increase in supply [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 South China's Views 3.1.1 Price Forecast - The price range of the rubber RU main contract in the next two weeks is predicted to be 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.95% and a 3 - year volatility historical percentile of 38.34%. - The price range of the 20 - number rubber NR main contract in the next two weeks is predicted to be 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.96% and a 3 - year volatility historical percentile of 68.66% [2]. 3.1.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For those with high inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to falling rubber prices, strategies include selling 50% of RU2601 futures at 15,700 - 16,000 yuan/ton, buying 35% of RU2601 - P15250 put options below 320 yuan, and selling 25% of RU2601 - C16000 call options above 310 yuan. - Procurement Management: For those with low regular inventory and future procurement plans, worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include buying 50% of NR2512 futures at 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton, buying 30% of RU2601 - C15500 call options below 400 yuan, and selling 20% of RU2601 - P14500 put options above 160 yuan [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The short - term performance of rubber is strong, but further upward drivers are limited. Near - term, attention should be paid to the liquidity risk on the spot side, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the increase in supply [3]. 3.3利多解读 - The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased last week, and the cost of oil - chemical products is weakly stable in the short term. - The demand for automotive supporting at home and abroad has been good this year, and China's automobile exports have maintained strong growth. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has introduced concentrated policies, warming the macro - sentiment. - The demand for winter snow tires is booming, and the downstream tire production is at a good level [4][6]. 3.4利空解读 - The Fed's hawkish attitude and the potential US government shutdown increase macro - uncertainties. - Rising rubber prices will bring pressure on both supply and demand. The downstream trading willingness has weakened, and the import supply of dry rubber will remain relatively loose. - The inventory pressure of downstream tires (especially semi - steel tires) and terminal automobiles still exists [7]. 3.5 Futures Data 3.5.1 Futures Prices - On October 29, 2025, the closing prices of RU01, RU05, and RU09 contracts were 15,625 yuan/ton, 15,705 yuan/ton, and 15,770 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 265 yuan/ton, 280 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. - The closing prices of NR - continuous, NR - continuous 1, NR - continuous 2, and NR - continuous 3 were 12,720 yuan/ton, 12,730 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 190 yuan/ton, 205 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5.2 Warehouse Receipt Inventory - On October 29, 2025, the RU warehouse receipt inventory was 122,890 tons, an increase of 320 tons from the previous day and a decrease of 4,850 tons from last week. - The NR warehouse receipt inventory was 44,253 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from the previous day and an increase of 1,613 tons from last week [9]. 3.6 Spot Data 3.6.1 Spot Prices - On October 29, 2025, the price of domestic full - latex in Shanghai was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day and 600 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of Thai RSS3 (CIF) was 18,650 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 150 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. 3.6.2 Spot Spreads - Various spot spreads, such as the spread between full - latex and smoked sheets, full - latex and Vietnamese 3L, etc., are presented in historical data charts [39]. 3.7 Basis Trends - The basis trends between different spot products (such as full - latex, smoked sheets, Vietnamese 3L) and RU01, as well as between some spot products and NR main contracts, are presented in seasonal charts [51]. 3.8 Cost and Profit 3.8.1 Raw Material Prices - On October 29, 2025, the price of Hainan glue (state - owned) was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 600 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of Thai glue was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht/kg from the previous day and 1.4 Thai baht/kg from last week [59]. 3.8.2 Theoretical Profits - The theoretical delivery profit of full - latex in Yunnan, the production gross profit of Yunnan tire rubber TSR9710, and the processing and import profits of Thai smoked sheets, Thai standard rubber, and Thai mixed rubber are presented in seasonal charts [68][71].