CNCEC(SH:601117) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-30 11:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in new contracts and improved profitability year-on-year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 135.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.232 billion yuan, up 10.28% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.19 billion yuan, 6.66 billion yuan, and 7.26 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.6, 7.0, and 6.5 respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 178.36 billion yuan - 2024A: 185.84 billion yuan - 2025E: 192.36 billion yuan - 2026E: 206.43 billion yuan - 2027E: 224.85 billion yuan - Revenue Growth Rate: - 2023A: 13.1% - 2024A: 4.2% - 2025E: 3.5% - 2026E: 7.3% - 2027E: 8.9% [6][8] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 5.43 billion yuan - 2024A: 5.69 billion yuan - 2025E: 6.19 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.66 billion yuan - 2027E: 7.26 billion yuan - Net Profit Growth Rate: - 2023A: 0.2% - 2024A: 4.8% - 2025E: 8.7% - 2026E: 7.7% - 2027E: 9.0% [6][8] Order and Contract Performance - The company secured new contracts totaling 284.561 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.17%. The breakdown includes: - Construction Engineering: 273.564 billion yuan - Survey and Design: 2.595 billion yuan - New Materials: 7.851 billion yuan - Modern Services: 489 million yuan - Other Businesses: 62 million yuan [7] - The new contracts in domestic and overseas markets were 230.909 billion yuan and 53.652 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 5.74% and -18.36% [7] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.43%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 3.12%, up 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 5.575 billion yuan, which is a decrease in outflow compared to the previous year [7]