Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-30 11:57Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Fed's October interest rate decision resulted in a 25bp rate cut and an announcement to end balance sheet reduction in December. However, Powell's subsequent hawkish remarks cooled the rate cut expectations. The market repriced the Fed's future rate cut path, with the expectation of no rate cut in December rising to over 65%. This led to a rise in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, causing A-shares to face pressure and close lower. The small and medium-cap stock indices, which are more sensitive to interest rates, had larger declines. It is believed that the market will digest the impact of the change in rate cut expectations in the short term. Based on the market performance during previous five-year plans, the impact of the Fourth Plenary Session is expected to last for about two weeks, combined with the results of the China-US economic and trade consultations after the market [5]. Market Review - The stock indices closed lower today, with the large-cap stock indices relatively more resilient. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.80%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.65647 billion yuan. The stock index futures all declined with increased volume [3]. Important Information - The Fed implemented a combination of measures: continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end balance sheet reduction in December, with two voting members opposing the interest rate decision. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the US will cancel the so-called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export controls announced on September 29 for one year, and suspend the implementation of the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the US [4]. Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.69 | 13.7376 | 3.6443 | 27.0734 | 1.2176 | | IH | -0.55 | 6.3949 | 1.8844 | 10.2044 | 0.7069 | | IC | -1.06 | 16.8288 | 3.3521 | 26.0211 | 0.7396 | | IM | -0.91 | 24.8653 | 6.1017 | 36.9079 | 2.0311 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.73 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.16 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.32 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 2421.677 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 165.647 | [7]