TDTEC(SH:600582) Xinda Securities·2025-10-30 12:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the coal and equipment manufacturing sectors, with a 39.51% year-on-year decline in non-recurring net profit to 1.264 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.55% year-on-year, primarily due to investment income from the transfer of 51% equity in Qin Nan Energy [4]. - The company is expected to achieve stable growth as coal prices stabilize and the decline in contract liabilities narrows. The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao showed a "V" shape trend throughout the year, with prices of 723, 633, 669, and 740 yuan per ton in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively [4]. - The company has a high net cash position of approximately 17.6 billion yuan, which provides a solid foundation for withstanding industry cycles and returning value to shareholders. The dividend rate is expected to increase, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% based on a 50% payout ratio [4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal mining design and full industry chain, with expected net profits of 2.837 billion, 3.043 billion, and 3.276 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have total revenue of 29.238 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 2.837 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 25.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.7% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.69 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.64 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.93 [6].