航天南湖（688552）：看好公司军贸和低空市场潜力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.50 RMB [7][5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in the first three quarters, primarily driven by increased deliveries of radar-related products. The fourth quarter is expected to contribute substantially to the annual performance due to the defense construction needs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from strong domestic and international demand for air defense early warning products, with several new products expected to enter mass procurement stages, leading to rapid growth in performance from 2025 to 2027 [1][4]. - The company is actively expanding into the low-altitude economy, developing safety detection systems and products, which have already secured bulk orders from users, indicating a promising growth trajectory in this sector [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 66.14 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 224.84%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 58.95%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached 585 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 579.06% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 13.91%, down 23.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the first three quarters was 23.60%, up 5.03 percentage points year-on-year. The fluctuations in gross margin are attributed to the mix of new and mature products and the higher margins associated with military trade compared to the domestic market [3][5]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 116.03 million RMB, 219.01 million RMB, and 296.27 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.34 RMB, 0.65 RMB, and 0.88 RMB [5][11]. Market Outlook - The military trade market is expected to grow positively due to the increasing global demand for air defense capabilities, enhancing the company's international competitiveness in this sector [4]. - The low-altitude economy presents a significant growth opportunity, with the company focusing on key technologies for low-altitude target detection and recognition, further expanding its market presence [4].