老白干酒（600559）：Q3业绩承压，省内韧性更强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 0.833 billion and net profit of 0.08 billion, representing year-on-year decreases of 47.5% and 68.5% respectively. Despite external pressures, the company is focusing on product, channel, and brand reforms to enhance operational performance and core competitiveness [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from an improved competitive landscape in its home province, leading to a gradual recovery in operational performance and profit margins [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.33 billion, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, with net profit down 28.0% to 0.4 billion. In Q3 alone, total revenue was 0.85 billion, down 47.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 66.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin fell to 61.4%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product and Market Analysis - The white liquor business generated revenue of 3.31 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with products priced above 100 yuan performing better than those below 100 yuan, which saw declines of 15.0% and 22.1% respectively [2]. - Revenue from different regions showed that the home province (Hebei) generated 2.02 billion, down 13.8%, while other provinces experienced more significant declines [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 4.41 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.87 billion respectively, with a downward adjustment of 18% for each year due to external demand pressures [4][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.65, 0.71, and 0.78 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 28% for 2025 compared to previous forecasts [4][12].