经纬恒润（688326）：3Q25环比下滑，静待2026海外放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 145.23 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline in Q3 2025, attributed to price pressures from downstream customers, but year-on-year revenue growth remains positive [1][2]. - The outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026 is optimistic, particularly in the ADAS and L4 autonomous driving sectors, with expectations for improved profitability driven by cost reduction and efficiency gains [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.555 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.92 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 115.52% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 63.89% [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 4.464 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.88%, while the net profit was -75.05 million RMB, indicating a year-on-year improvement of 81.70% [2]. Q4 2025 and 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trend into 2026, driven by smart driving electronic products and autonomous driving solutions. Key clients like Geely, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and FAW are anticipated to enter stable production phases [3]. - The company aims to enhance profitability through improved R&D efficiency and cost control, with L4 autonomous driving platform products expected to accelerate commercialization [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at 7.39 billion RMB, 9.53 billion RMB, and 11.68 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits projected at 66.10 million RMB, 361.79 million RMB, and 607.76 million RMB [4][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margins, with estimates of 23.9%, 24.8%, and 25.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].