KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-30 12:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 128.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with a net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, also up by 6.2% year-on-year [8] - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 39.1 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while the net profit for the same period was 19.2 billion yuan, up by 0.5% year-on-year [8] - The company maintains growth in its flagship product, Moutai liquor, despite a significant reduction in direct sales [8] - The report anticipates revenue growth of 5% to 6.7% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth projected at 5.2% to 6.8% during the same period [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are as follows: 179.5 billion yuan in 2025, 189.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 201.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 90.7 billion yuan, 95.7 billion yuan, and 102.1 billion yuan respectively [7][9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 72.42 yuan in 2025 to 81.56 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 19.7 in 2025 to 17.5 in 2027 [7][9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 39.8% in 2025 to 46.7% in 2027, indicating strong profitability [7][9] Market Performance - The company’s stock closed at 1,426.74 yuan, with a circulating share capital of 1.252 billion shares [2] - The company’s market performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 13%, compared to a 1% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4]