Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (SZ:000983) Guohai Securities·2025-10-30 12:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's Q3 performance, attributed to a rebound in coking coal prices and effective cost control measures [4][5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 27.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.43 billion yuan, down 50% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, with a net profit of 420 million yuan, down 52% year-on-year but up 26% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the average price of main coking coal at ports increased by 19% quarter-on-quarter, aiding the company's performance [5]. - The average price of premium metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1,437 yuan/ton, down 23% year-on-year but up 5% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company benefited from improved supply-demand dynamics in the coking coal industry due to ongoing policies to curb overproduction and high iron output levels [5]. Cost Management - The company successfully managed costs, with operating costs decreasing by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [5]. - The sales expense ratio was 1.0%, down 0.42 percentage points year-on-year and 0.19 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the management expense ratio was 8.3%, down 0.42 percentage points year-on-year and 1.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have revenues of 39.9 billion yuan, 41.7 billion yuan, and 43.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12%, +5%, and +5% [5][6]. - Net profits are expected to be 2.2 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 3.4 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -30%, +27%, and +23% [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.39 yuan, 0.49 yuan, and 0.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19, 15, and 12 times [5][6].