东莞控股(000828):主业稳健投资收益增长明显,上调全年盈利预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown stable main business operations with significant growth in investment income, leading to an upward revision of the annual profit forecast [4]. - The company plans to distribute dividends to shareholders, committing to a minimum cash dividend of 0.475 CNY per share over the next three years, which corresponds to an estimated dividend yield of approximately 4.0% based on the current share price [6][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.184 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 836 million CNY, an increase of 15.01% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s net cash flow from operating activities significantly improved, reaching 1.644 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 192.21% [6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was approximately 69.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revised profit forecast estimates the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.025 billion CNY, 984 million CNY, and 995 million CNY respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.99 CNY, 0.95 CNY, and 0.96 CNY [4][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on October 29, 2025, are projected to be 12.2X, 12.7X, and 12.5X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6].